warinner (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} warinner) wrote,@ 2008-03-05 10:08:00 |
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The Empire Strikes Back
One the perks of amateur punditry is never admitting a misjudgement but I'll own up to mine: Clinton did pull off a big win in Ohio and a narrow win in Texas in spite of my seasoned judgement.
Whether she will get more delegates out of it than Obama is unclear. Texas has a weird two headed primary/caucus setup this time out that makes it difficult to predict who will net the most delegates.
Depending on whose numbers you believe, Clinton won 37 more pledged delegates, narrowing Obama's lead to around 86 delegates. These numbers from the AP's delegate tallies which include superdelegates.
The conventional wisdom has been that Hillary needed big (+20 point) wins in both Texas and Ohio, hold onto her superdelegates and win a committee fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations to win the nomination in the convention. Tuesday's results haven't substantially changed that picture, though Clinton didn't get the kind of margins she supposedly needed, Ohio and Texas didn't derail her plan. Clinton has adjusted her spin and now vows to campaign on to Pennsylvania on April 22.
There is also no immediate reason for Clinton to drop out. After weathering a financial crisis around Super Tuesday, Clinton has significant money rolling in now. Obama is still trouncing her in the money game, but Clinton is still raising serious money. And there aren't very many contests from here on out, so it is safe to say that both Clinton and Obama can campaign hard.
Time is running out. Wyoming (a caucus state) and Mississippi (a primary state) come before Pennsylvania. Mississippi is an Obama gimme and Wyoming may fall to Obama's caucus prowess. After Pennsylvania come Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and Montana. Clinton probably has a good shot at Indiana and West Virginia. Obama will take NC and OR. Kentucky could be a toss up. But that puts us all the way into June.
After Super Tuesday Howard Dean threatened to force an end to the horse race if threatened to drag into April and that is exactly what it looks like it will do. Dean can't officially do this of course but there are other ways to force Clinton or Obama out. If superdelegates start lining up behind Clinton or Obama, it would effectively decide the race. It is not an ideal way to finish it off but it is better than allowing McCain to have a free ride all the way to the convention.
So instead of looking for a battle over the states, look for a battle of endorsements. Big name Democrats will start weighing in and superdelegates will start publicly lining up. It's a shame for the race to be decided on whose rolodex is better but that's what it may come down to.
Obama has been buoyed by endorsements lately; Chris Dodd and John Lewis most prominently. I expect that Obama has John Edwards and Al Gore on speed dial and he may be rethinking offering Edwards the AG post in exchange for Edwards blessing. A lot of party hacks will be impressed by Obama's ground game and will want his GOTV machine in November. Clinton has not shown the same strength and there are plenty of party hacks who don't think she can win in November.
How much clout do the Clintons still have? Can Bill twist enough arms and cajole the party to fall in behind Hillary? I would say no but I've been wrong before.
One the perks of amateur punditry is never admitting a misjudgement but I'll own up to mine: Clinton did pull off a big win in Ohio and a narrow win in Texas in spite of my seasoned judgement.
Whether she will get more delegates out of it than Obama is unclear. Texas has a weird two headed primary/caucus setup this time out that makes it difficult to predict who will net the most delegates.
Depending on whose numbers you believe, Clinton won 37 more pledged delegates, narrowing Obama's lead to around 86 delegates. These numbers from the AP's delegate tallies which include superdelegates.
The conventional wisdom has been that Hillary needed big (+20 point) wins in both Texas and Ohio, hold onto her superdelegates and win a committee fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations to win the nomination in the convention. Tuesday's results haven't substantially changed that picture, though Clinton didn't get the kind of margins she supposedly needed, Ohio and Texas didn't derail her plan. Clinton has adjusted her spin and now vows to campaign on to Pennsylvania on April 22.
There is also no immediate reason for Clinton to drop out. After weathering a financial crisis around Super Tuesday, Clinton has significant money rolling in now. Obama is still trouncing her in the money game, but Clinton is still raising serious money. And there aren't very many contests from here on out, so it is safe to say that both Clinton and Obama can campaign hard.
Time is running out. Wyoming (a caucus state) and Mississippi (a primary state) come before Pennsylvania. Mississippi is an Obama gimme and Wyoming may fall to Obama's caucus prowess. After Pennsylvania come Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and Montana. Clinton probably has a good shot at Indiana and West Virginia. Obama will take NC and OR. Kentucky could be a toss up. But that puts us all the way into June.
After Super Tuesday Howard Dean threatened to force an end to the horse race if threatened to drag into April and that is exactly what it looks like it will do. Dean can't officially do this of course but there are other ways to force Clinton or Obama out. If superdelegates start lining up behind Clinton or Obama, it would effectively decide the race. It is not an ideal way to finish it off but it is better than allowing McCain to have a free ride all the way to the convention.
So instead of looking for a battle over the states, look for a battle of endorsements. Big name Democrats will start weighing in and superdelegates will start publicly lining up. It's a shame for the race to be decided on whose rolodex is better but that's what it may come down to.
Obama has been buoyed by endorsements lately; Chris Dodd and John Lewis most prominently. I expect that Obama has John Edwards and Al Gore on speed dial and he may be rethinking offering Edwards the AG post in exchange for Edwards blessing. A lot of party hacks will be impressed by Obama's ground game and will want his GOTV machine in November. Clinton has not shown the same strength and there are plenty of party hacks who don't think she can win in November.
How much clout do the Clintons still have? Can Bill twist enough arms and cajole the party to fall in behind Hillary? I would say no but I've been wrong before.
